Insider's Guide to Energy

Episode 39 Is the future floating? Developments in the offshore wind industry enable scaling.

September 27, 2021 Chris Sass Season 1 Episode 39
Insider's Guide to Energy
Episode 39 Is the future floating? Developments in the offshore wind industry enable scaling.
Show Notes Transcript

This week Chris and Will talk to Jonah Margulis, Senior Vice President of Aker Offshore Wind and Vice Chair Board of Directors at Offshore Wind California. Jonah talks about how floating wind compares to fixed bottom in terms of installation, O&M and cost competitiveness. Find out how digital twins are used for predictive maintenance and whether floating represents the future of offshore wind technologies.

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 | Timestamp | Speaker | Transcript

| 00:30.20 | chrissass |  welcome to insider's guide to energy I'm your host chris sasse and with me this week is co-host will will what's going on.
| 00:43.91 | Will | Hey Chris Yeah, not too much. Um, yeah, excited cited for this episode.
| 00:51.40 | chrissass | I'm excited to have you back on the main show, you've been killing it with your stories episodes. You've been getting great downloads some amazing guests So having will stevenson on the main show is just an amazing thing for us. Thanks for coming back over to this show.
| 01:02.87 | Will | Yeah, what a pleasure? What a pleasure Great to be back.
| 01:06.51 | chrissass | Really excited about this episode. We're going to be talking about wind. We're going to be talking about floating wind and and things that can happen I know that renewables are 1 of your passions. So I was I was happy when I saw this guest coming to say hey we need will here. What are you expecting today.
| 01:22.51 | Will | Yeah, um, it's It's a good question I'm I'm sort of open to kind of hearing um all sorts of things I'm particularly excited about um you know how our guest is looking at kind of development of offshore wind. Um across the Globe. Um. My day job is as ah, a power market researcher. So Um I spend quite a lot of time thinking about about wind technologies and such things and especially roadblocks to to the deployment of renewables. Um, so I'm I'm quite keen to get his um his insight onto that and how his company is getting past those.
| 02:00.97 | chrissass | Yeah I want to hear about that I think he does some stuff off the California offshore I think that'll be interesting to see what's taking place over there. California's always a little bit of a unique enigma I think in the energy especially with new renewables and not in my backyard and all kinds of interesting things. So you you always have to be careful what you wish for in California I believe.
| 02:01.60 | Will | Um, chiefly.
| 02:20.66 | chrissass | So be interesting to see see his take on that as well. But rather than speculating. Let's go ahead and bring our guest on board I'd like to introduce Jonah Margolis Jonah Welcome to the program.
| 02:29.74 | Jonah Margulis | Awesome hey Chris hey will great to be here. Excited to to talk about floating wind.
| 02:36.34 | chrissass | Well fantastic. We are as you can tell passionate about energy and and hearing about it. But I think before we talk about floating wind Specifically Maybe we should introduce you to our audience who you are. What do you do? I mean I kind of mangled your name and your introduction but let's let's go a little bit more about your background and and.
| 02:54.81 | Jonah Margulis | The sounds great and you you did very well with the name. So so well done. It's ah I've heard many iterations of it so you're 1 of the top so well done. So so my name is Jonah marvelous I'm the svp of of operations for ocker offshore wind i.
| 02:55.29 | chrissass | Who you are.
| 03:13.94 | Jonah Margulis | Um, sitting here and in the us in Hoton actually today. Um, and what we do is is aroshire wind is we are a global offshore wind developer for the deep water and that's that's effectively floating but before we get into what the company does maybe just ah, a couple seconds on on who I am. Been in the and energy industry now for just clicked over 20 years so I feel ah that's ah, a milestone in and itself and I've been very fortunate to to experience really a whole host of different things in the energy world from power to. Oil and gas now it's renewables I actually started in the nuclear industry so that was ah that was kind of cool. Definitely a somewhat full circle and in some respects and into the back end of the power world for the last say about 15 years since I've been in houston. Been focused on new technology and bringing bringing new technologies to market in the the offshore space predominantly and subsea and deep water that's been It's been fun. It's been challenging, pushing limits failing sometimes and that's that's part of innovation and that's that's part of you know what. Been very fortunate to be able to do for the last about 4 years since 2017 really have dove deep into offshore wind and very specifically floating wind so we was working with ocker solutions. So I've been in the ocker family if you will for about 8 years and seventeen we took ah took a very keen interest in in offshore wind and and floating wind specifically because of our skills in the offshore in the deepwater and specifically you know I as I joke you know things that float we're we're pretty good at we've been. We've been doing a lot of work through the years um and we kind of stepped into it with taking a small acquisition basically ah a small portion of a company called principal power they're ah a california-based company that has done some really innovative stuff around the floating substructure. Ah, these floating offshore wind turbines sit on so that that journey has led me to to oc offshire wind I officially joined oc offs shewin january first of this year the company's just about a year well just over year old we We launched last summer and I've been very fortunate to start to build a ah powerhouse team here in the us so starting to ramp up personnel and and our ambitions in the us. So. It's a little about me I am an engineer by my background. So if I do get too technical just you know, wave the hand and and let me know so it's all good.
| 05:59.89 | chrissass | Yeah, no, it's it's It's a fantastic introduction. It sounds like your timing couldn't be better to be getting into floating offshore wind. Um, you know it's It's interesting that that the the parent company decided to start the the wind group and. I Think in the pre-show Conversation. We talked about some of the experience and some of the history of the parent company. Why a floating wind may make interest. Maybe maybe it makes sense to share where the audience is is a little bit of that history because I I found that pretty fascinating. You know you you said you guys are good at al things floating. But why is that.
| 06:34.17 | Jonah Margulis | Yeah, great. Great question. So the the occer group can really trace its history back over 100 eighty years so been around a little while and it is we are headquartered in in norway and that kind of the common theme or the thread to that 1 hundred eighty years has been. Maritime or Marine environment so offshore or into the water and innovation was kind of the 2 things that have been with us that those 1 hundred eighty years and I guess to to be around 100 and eighty years you you have to have some innovation you have to be able to transform yourself through time. Um, the last say five decades or so last fifty years or so has been predominantly offshore energy. So so oil and gas predominantly and designing a lot of the structures that are floating in deeper waters. Whether it's off the coast of Norway coast the gulf of Mexico africa. Asia we've been very involved in a lot of those those projects if you look at just the the semi submersible market which is the you know the most common market for for floaters. We. We have been involved in about sixty percent of those globally so you know we. Know a thing or 2 about floating and that has really transferred our you can transfer that knowledge into into floating wind which is kind of the next great market when we talk about floating structured in their.
| 08:00.45 | Will | Yeah, um, yeah, very interesting. Um, So what? what are the key kind of um, you know if you're looking at a kind of floating offshore wind turbine. Um, what are the technical um barriers that you got to overcome there.
| 08:18.52 | Jonah Margulis | Yeah, good. Good question and really if you go really fundamentally or or the Principal challenge is that we're we're dealing with with large these turbines are quite large. You know we're talking 10 plus Megawatt turbines you know upwards of. I'll use speed 800 and fifty feet in the air quite quite large so stability in in harsh weather Stability in high wind environments is is a technical challenge a lot of work has has been done I mentioned the you know the principal power company. They've done a lot of good testing off the coast of portugal actually in in europe which is is proven out a lot of those technical challenges they had ah a great demo or a pilot from Twenty eleven to 2016 which proved out a lot of these in really harsh harsh weather environments you know taking waves of seventeen meters. And and keep it on operating. So so a lot of lessons learned but Stability being able to do it in a economical way I think that's that's where we are as an industry that's kind of the Principal challenge is driving down the cost of energy ultimately and so so scaling up. And to be able to drive down. The cost is really the the Principal economic challenge if you will for the industry. A lot of the technical challenges also come in the in terms of the mooring lines and the and the anchoring systems the dynamic cables those are some of the Principal challenges. these are these are solvable not you know really big gnarly challenges. But but there are things that we're we're trying to do in an economical way so we can you know put commercial scale floating wind farms out there and it's probably worth me defining commercial scale because that can.
| 10:01.54 | chrissass | Are.
| 10:09.16 | Jonah Margulis | You know, depending who you talk to that can be different. We typically define commercial scales above 100 Megawatt so that's ah, it's a nice kind of round number to say okay above that that's commercial scale. Everything to date thirty Megawatt high wind scotland and and. 25 Megawatt windflow atlantic and even now fifty megawatt king cardin in in England or scotland these are all kind of precommercial. We were learning a lot. But now we're stepping up into the commercial. You know, Hundred plus Megawatt scale project.
| 10:39.52 | chrissass | Um, so a project at that magnitude. What is deep water and how far offshore is that.
| 10:45.33 | Jonah Margulis | Um, dads. It's you know, coming coming from the oil and gas world when we say deep water that has a certain definition in terms of water depth in the offshore wind world when we're talking deep water that's anything Beyond sixty 6 meters and so. Anything beyond that is is typically floating or evaluating floating and we're even looking at you know, maybe even forty to fifty meter floating and see if that's that's economical in some areas basically beyond that water depth fixed bottom which is which has been deployed There's remember the 26 28 gigawatts have been deployed something like that you know, globally virtually all of that has been fixed bottom that you're constrained though to the water depth and you a lot of the areas that are have have fixed bottom are are are kind of done. You. You don't have that ability to go to where the best wind is and and get away from shore so in in the deep water when we say 60 meters but that also means it's it's a bit further from shore so traditionally or typically we're looking at Twenty Twenty five thirty miles offshore so and ah, almost either beyond the Horizon or just just at the horizon if you will so the the nimbyism ah certainly is ah helps when you're way offshore.
| 12:11.27 | Will | Yeah I'm sure it does yeah preferable to onshore wind for for anyone who has to live near a turbine I would guess although I quite like like looking at them. Um, given that they're um, you know so far offshore as far as I understand it. Um, 1 of The. Kind of key issues with offshore wind. Um, that can harm its economics and is the operations and maintenance. It's just really difficult to get out to these things and you don't want to go out with a big boat that you've had to hire for just a single 1 of these is that something you have to think about quite a lot about trying to. Um, reduce the amount of operations and maintenance that any of your structures require How? How do you think about that.
| 12:51.76 | Jonah Margulis | Yeah, absolutely we we think about that a lot to be to be. You know, quite fair because that that is a big driver of of your lcoe your your levelized cost of energy when you're looking at the 55 year lifetime of these wind farms. So you know a lot of people will will focus on the capex and that's that's right to do to you know drive that down make sure that is that is the right level? Um, but if you do too much in the capex you actually hurt your economics because your opex or you're operating maintenance is suffers right? So there's there's a balance there. What we've been doing in the operation and maintenance. It's a portion of what we call the capital value process is using digital technologies to really drive our ability to predict and that's really important when we're talking about planning for operation maintenance. Planning for operation operation maintenance. You can you can put a budget for and you can you can you can do? It's the unplanned maintenance that you that's that's the but so the ability to to in real time monitor being able to condition monitor but ultimately predict when there's going to be maintenance required. That's really the you know that's the magic 1 of the 1 of the programs we're running right now we're about a year into it actually I'll I'll bring it back to California for a second we were have ah of a project a grant with the California energy commission to look at this exact challenge. Sort of build a full digital twin of the entire wind farm and employ technology to be able to monitor in real time you know when there's marine life or when there's avian events or water. Ah. Wave issues or or anything we can say okay, what is the health and condition of that piece of equipment of the of the structure of everything so we can say okay, we need to send a boat out in you know 30 days or or whatever so we can plan for it and and make that. Make that maintenance make that repair.
| 15:03.71 | chrissass | So I understand that the value of of being able to predict that seems like it maybe a competitive advantage if if that's what you're you're doing and you have the right sensors or monitors to do that is are you. Building these from the ground up are they or are you buying commercial parts. Are you buying these from Manufacturers or are you are these your turbines you you building these specing them or how how how does that work.
| 15:28.92 | Jonah Margulis | Know yeah, the the turbine so we we focus on on the full. Let's say lifecycle full set of equipment. We're not manufacturing turbines so we there are there are specialists there. You know, absolutely first rate oems original equipment manufacturers that are that are building these turbines and are doing just tremendous work and really, they're pushing the envelope in terms of materials in terms of size in terms of reliability that is is really impressive. So we're we're using, we're working with them. What we're doing from a digital twin standpoint is we're building a digital platform for them to incorporate their data into our our platform so we can. You know there are very clever software companies that are building apps on top of this to be able to allow us to you know, very. Quickly and and easily you know, very nice interface monitor these these big pieces of equipment whether it's turbine whether it's substructure whether it's the cables mooring lines you know down the list.
| 16:36.32 | Will | Yeah, um, so so to get 1 of these up. Um, you need to find some kind of some kind of financing and get someone to you know, put put the money in um, where's that coming From. Do do I take you don't do it off balance sheet but it's some kind of um. Um, kind of debt financing.
| 16:54.64 | Jonah Margulis | Yeah we're our projects if you look kind of globally where where we are were oro. Our wind is globally. We we launched things said just about a year ago right august of of Twenty twenty in the middle of the pandemic which is in an interesting time to launch a company but shows the. Desire to do this. We started with I call four flags on the map if you look across globally korea south korea norway uk and the us so those are our kind of four flags that we planted we had early phase projects and and all of these are early phase Development. So. You know when we're talking about f ids and and that kind of thing. It's in the second half the twenty twenty s and so that's kind of the timeline we're we're talking about here since we've launched we've we've planted 2 more flags on the on the Map. So just ah I guess early part of this year we announced our interest in. In Sweden and then just just a few weeks ago. We kind of formalized the jv with Hexicon in in Sweden so that's the the fifth flag if you will and then just just in the middle of august this recently we announced our entry into Japan. So we are. Been the selected bidder to you know, exclusive negotiations on ah on an early phase project 8 hundred megawatt project with our partner mainstream renewables and negotiating with progression. So we've now got 6 flag or soon to be 6 flag I guess and until we sign the sign up. But. That's that's been kind of where we see and and there's more flags to come not to not to lead you or anything but you know there's there's more work going on there but but in terms of ah financing it. It depends where we are in the world. Of course we're we're very early disease. These are all very early phase developments. But we ah we have a good good partner in terms of our our ownership which is acra horizonzons. That's our our parent company and working with them for for various financing needs and requirements. Yeah.
| 19:03.52 | chrissass | So It's It's pretty exciting to be in so many places in in getting the the economies of scale that I imagine come with that. So as someone that doesn't know how lot I'm gonna ask some silly questions because that's why I'm here on the show so being offshore in all those environments and places and in. And seeing energy is critical infrastructure. How do you secure a wind farm that's offshore out of sight from potential problems right? I don't know where the international Waters lie I don't know who's who's guarding their energy supply. But if you consider it critical infrastructure which if if. Wind and and renewables becomes the the amount of electricity that we're all moving towards it becomes critical infrastructure. So It's no longer a rounding error when you get to the size scale Projects. You're talking about how are you protecting them.
| 19:50.31 | Jonah Margulis | Yeah, great, great question and and each of the locations have different. You know governments have different ways to to handle it I'll use the us because I like I sit in the us and I so I know it very well but all of the waters basically Beyond 3 miles. From the from the coastline are are in federal jurisdiction. So they're by by bone bureau ocean energy management. So all of the the areas and it it goes out to you roughly 200 nautical miles. So we're we're not there. Not at 200 we're yeah 20 to thirty miles give or take. So in the us they have a a lease process so they identify they do ah a whole host of initial outreach and and work on ah defining areas and they issue requests for interest to for a call area. So in the west coast in California. There are originally 3 call areas that were put out for public comment and interest back in 2018 just earlier this year after the Biden administrations ah that came in and. Issued their quite I think ambitious thirty Gigawatt by 2030 goal which is may talk about that later but they issued um, kind of the next 2 of those 3 areas into the next phase of environmental analysis. So so up in the North coast the humble call area
| 21:10.62 | chrissass | Um, yep.
| 21:25.62 | Jonah Margulis | Down on the Central coast the moral bay cal area and both of these areas again. Are you know 20 to thirty miles offshore there'll be a host of environmental analysis ongoing and then you know about a year from now the fall of Twenty twenty 2 there'll be a lease auction for those for those areas. So. That's how it's done in the us and of course once you get the lease There's still a you know several year process to make sure you have all the permits in place before you actually put steel in the water and and commence operations.
| 21:56.30 | chrissass | And and then's curing that hold on before you ask your question because that was the the question was also how do you protect the critical infrastructure when it's offshore in the open ocean.
| 22:04.68 | Jonah Margulis | Ah, yeah, from a security standpoint got you? Um, yeah I mean look there's there's ah, a lot of I think really intelligent smart people thinking through this in terms of how you. Make sure from an it standpoint so from a data standpoint are securing things from a physical infrastructure standpoint. You know there's ah, there's a reason we you know had a long.. Let's a fruitful discussion with the dod in the West coast because a lot of their training. Is done on the West Coast especially in the Central Coast near near the mall Bay colier. So There's ah, there's a lot of dialogue there, but it is still ah it is critical infrastructure. We will. We have eyes and ears on it at all times I think that's the. Way we secure it.
| 23:00.31 | Will | Yeah I just wanted to pick up on um on you talking about the Biden administration coming in. Um, you rightly mentioned just there that that this was probably going to come up. Um I thought um you know doing my prep for the show I thought it was pretty interesting that you came into the role. Um, you know. Just prior to his administration beginning. But I guess that the the kind of planning for that. Um, was started in Advance. Um, and I wondered what the shift was in feeling or momentum. Um, as the trump administration moved into the Biden 1 um, and. How much champagne you probably sort of cracked open at the results.
| 23:39.55 | Jonah Margulis | Yeah I you know I don't know about cracking open champagne I think that you know building an industry is is hard to do regardless of the administration. Um I think if you go back, you know a decade or or a little farther in the us you know we kind of had ah almost a false start right? I mean with. Some tough stuff that was going on on the east coast and I think there's a lot of reasons why it didn't it didn't take you know I think from a technology standpoint I think we weren't quite there yet. But I think we now are certainly on the east coast and the fixed bottom now. It's shifting to the west coast and the floating and that's the next straight wave. Offshore wind. Um, but look I think it's really a good thing when administration puts a goal out there that you can rally around and I think that's really important. You know you can argue is thirty Gigawatts the right number you know, okay, fair enough but it's it's really important to rally around that. And and it has absolutely energized the the industry I can speak from that I can look at you know the various industry associations that are are really rallying around this um and it it also I'd say unleashes the supply chain. And I think that was 1 of the it's 1 of kind of the what I call the 3 big challenges that industry still has is is the development of the supply chain and both on the east coast and we've seen some good movement there but also on the west coast. How do you? How do you achieve? How do you deliver thirty Gigawatts that's that's not easy. So that's that's going to be so I think the the 30 giwat and the new administration was very good to unleash that ambition that had always been there.
| 25:26.48 | Will | Yeah, um, ah there are so many parts that come come together to to Produce. You know, an offshore wind farm um, including you know vast supply chains probably international ones I was wondering you know with ah a target for thirty Gigwatts by 2030 um, it has a nice ring to it. But but what what could stand in the way of that. Um, you know what what are the roadblocks to that in your opinion.
| 25:53.82 | Jonah Margulis | I think you know first and foremost the the regulatory process has to be clear clear and transparent and and expeditious and that's that's not always easy to do. What I think what we've seen since since the new administration has come in as is a real energy in that inbo right? and getting things progressed there was there was quite a quite a quee of ah various permits whether it be cops or scps or or so forth that just kind of were getting stuck. We started to see really good movement in the last you or in the first but 8 months or so the new administration you've seen you know the first commercial scale you know 8 hundred plus megawatt project vineyard wind or reach financial closure just just just recently and you're seeing you know gigawatts. Projects now progressing and and that's a really good sign now the challenge or the maybe the discussion is is moved to how do we streamline this? You know that I mentioned the you know it can be 4 or 5 years of permitting to go from. You know, getting the lease right? securing the lease. To actually making making a financial decision and id how can you? How can you streamline that I think what I've been really encouraged and I think the industry has been really encouraged is is boom thinking through how do we do that? How do we streamline this using the you know look at all the digital tools we have today. Can we do things in ah in a more so expeditious. You know it's still doing the diligence revealing the the deep environmental analysis and so forth, but using digital technologies to actually accelerate that I think that's that's really exciting and that would be a a huge step forward.
| 27:46.59 | chrissass | So accelerating makes sense. It's probably also for your investors probably appreciate that as well to to to not have a project take 5 years to get a go. No go. Um, you mentioned there were 3 hurdles a question or 2 ago. So you also just mentioned environmental impact. So so.
| 27:47.40 | Jonah Margulis | But the industry.
| 28:06.22 | chrissass | What would be gating besides regulation or getting approvals. What are what are some of the risks or or the gates to getting a large scale project going because it's not. It's not a prototype. It's not a small project or it's a big commitment Once someone says yes so so what are the possible hurdles.
| 28:21.56 | Jonah Margulis | Yeah, so you're you're actually right? So the the 3 what I call the 3 big challenges for offshore wind and and yeah this is floating wind and and and fixed bottom wind so we'll look at the the total market but the 3 big challenges that I see are are port infrastructure. Or or maybe the lack of fort infrastructure currently and we're we are starting to see see some good movement there. But that's that's 1 2 is is transmission and the ability and we're talking about large multi gigawatt power plants that are offshore. How do we transmit that. Onto shore and get it to the load centers in an efficient way and the supply chain and the the development of that supply chain both domestically and and internationally those 3 challenges are really to me critical. So if you see movement in those 3 you can see you know we're making progress. We're starting to see yeah on on the west coast we're starting to see port infrastructure be or funding for the port infrastructure start to be released so that's that's really a positive That's a first indication that there there will be.
| 29:34.23 | chrissass | So what? what needs to be done when you say port infrastructure That's pretty broad I mean I always think of long beach when you think of the West Coast and port because that's the port. Um, so what is the gap and where is the infrastructure need to be improved and what.
| 29:35.89 | Jonah Margulis | Something here.
| 29:51.92 | chrissass | But specifically.
| 29:53.28 | Jonah Margulis | Yup now. Great great question and you're right it it is probably probably too broad when I say it to be fair. Um, but port ofative structure. Ideally, you want your port of assembly. So we're assembling these large structures the substructure the floating. Piece as well as the turbine blades Naselle and tower all in the port. So ideally, you want a port that's relatively close to your wind farm. You don't want to have to tow it. You know hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of miles. You don't want to do that. So ideally, you put a. Port relatively close to where that wind farm is I'll use the example of of of the North coast in california the port of humble bay which is a fantastic port and it's very close to to the the call area. It's about. You know, twenty five thirty miles from the call area. So ideal location. Um, this is a port that was mainly ah a timber export port but with the timber industry. You know, kind of going downhill several decades ago, you know it just hasn't been. Hasn't had enough investment in it to really maintain it and be able to take the the weight bearing of of these large components when we're talking about large structures and assembling and constructing. You know these are big pieces these are multi multi-ton. Hundreds of tons type of type of stuff you need to be able to be able to move that around on shore and the crane capacity to be able to do this so there's ah, there's a lot of work that needs to be done at not just for humble which they have got some initial funding from the state of California which is great but all across. All but down the west coast as well as up and down the east coast you see you have seen some some good movement in the East coast as well up in the northeast as well as even down in the Mid -atlantic states on that.
| 31:52.10 | chrissass | Okay, so that was 1 so we we yeah hold on a second I want to finish the the point. So so the ports I heard so I heard that you you talked to that supply chain and and I forget your your your third point at the moment transmission that was the 1 I wanted to go to next because that that to me is.
| 32:02.41 | Jonah Margulis | The the the set what I always say the second is transmission and.
| 32:11.62 | chrissass | How are you solving that and then is there a greater on to receive all this additional power because it's it's kind of fragile as I understand at least in North america now you're all globally. There may be other maybe better in other countries. But sorry I'd ah I'd love to go through the 3 and I know my colleagues dying to ask a question but I want to hear the response.
| 32:21.74 | Jonah Margulis | Sure.
| 32:27.35 | Jonah Margulis | Now that's okay, transmission is a ah big subject and and to be fair, probably ah, you know you probably do a full podcast. There's not just on transmission. Ah and the challenges around it. Um, but but largely, you know if we look at California. You know they're projected with their legislation now in place with their sb 1 hundred legislation which you know basically dictates they have to be at 100 percent clean energy by 2045 so in the next what say 25 years but it's actually twenty three and a half years or so um. They need to have bring on about a hundred forty gigawatts of renewable energy their current transmission capacity can't handle that it it just can't so so there's a there's a the the big problem or big challenge is is understood now. It's. Where do you deploy that transmission capacity and capability to make sure that we're taking advantage of where these big renewable energy projects are so the the very current legislation which just passed just a couple weeks ago is called a b 30 what that does is it.
| 33:41.60 | Jonah Margulis | Requires the California energy commission to put a roadmap out for for transmission as well as ports to be able to serve about ten Gigawatts of offshore wind that would cover the first 2 collar is in. Which I mentioned humblebt tomorrow and then probably some additional ones as well. But it starts to lay out that roadmap and if if anybody's been around transmission it it does take a while to not only just the planet but to actually permit it and and construct it. So. That is a it's a it's a big challenge for not just California I'll I'm using them and as as an example, but that's kind of across the across the globe now there are areas there are let's say first mover areas where there may be you know a fossil fuel plant or a thermal plant that may be coming offline being retired and. You know a couple years or a few years where there's ah you know a big a big plug that you can plug into so there are there are some opportunities there that happens to be 1 of the interesting parts about Mar bay the central coast is that the Yablo canyon nuclear plant is coming offline in 2025. That's a 2 plus gigawatt project or a you know plant you know that's a that's a logical place for for you know, 2 gigawatts of offshore wind to plug into stuff. There are opportunities. There.
| 35:02.99 | chrissass | Um, cool.
| 35:03.67 | Will | So Does this mean that we're we're likely to see sort of big clusters um of offshore. Um you know capacity in the future and we get you know a finite small number of of real hubs of offshore capacity where you've got. Excellent ports, Great transmission Network Big Demand Hubs nearby. Um, or is that not how you sit.
| 35:29.90 | Jonah Margulis | I think that is the initial wave of of projects. That's that's exactly right? and you know what that initial wave is I mean yeah, depends. What analysts you you know you listen to right and we've got our own internal projections on that. But certainly you know tens of gigawatts. In the in the us that we see you know we we talk about thirty Gigawatts by 2030 right? and and there's a small amount of floating there. But really the the bulk of the deployment of floating as is the latter half the twenty twenty s into the 2030 s um. But we don't also talk about is the 1 hundred ten Gigawatt target for 2050 in the us right? That's you can start to see the growth we have started to to talk about the the floating wind target and that's that's you know, probably 30 gigawatts by 2040 so in the next twenty years you're going to see that type of deployment but it doesn't stop there I mean the the reality is the the best wind resources are in the floating where know in the deeper waters. We're floating is going to be the the technology of choice. You know in the us it's it's something like sixty percent of the resources are in the waters deeper than than 60 meters. Globally it's it. It inches up with closer to 80 percent of of total resources. So there's a lot of potential and as the cost curve comes down. Which we've which we've seen right and we have our own targets to you know be basically a cost parity with fixed bottom by the end of this decade you can see fixed floating wind really being deployed at and a massive scale.
| 37:15.47 | Will | You've you've perfectly anticipated my question I was going to ask you about that? Um, that kind of divide between um, you know, fixed bottom and floating offshore and how you saw that trending. So it's starting. Um. More ah cheaper at the moment is the fixed. Bottom is what I'm hearing um but by ah, 2040 do you say that you you expect to see cost 2030 you expect to see cost parity and and then the resources out there. The economics are there. There's no reason why you would go fix bottom after that point.
| 37:46.89 | Jonah Margulis | Yeah that's right and there's a couple different factors here of course at play is that 1 is the areas that are being leased now or have been leased recently are all predominantly fixed bottom. So those prime spots. are are effectively getting you know there' they're fewer and fewer of those prime spots so the prime wind is is further offshore and in deeper waters that's piece of it the other piece in terms of the cost. Let's say the cost story or the cost trajectory is that we've seen tremendous decrease in the fixed bottom cost ah across across the globe. In europe you're you're seeing you know great cost reductions whether it's in the uk or other parts of of europe um, what not a lot of people talk about is that in floating you know, 60 to seventy percent of the components that we use are the same components in fixed Spot so we're basically like taking advantage but but you know effectively using those cost savings and in what we're doing so our focus is on that remaining 30 to forty percent. It's the unique characteristics of floating so that's and and when we look at that thirty forty percent remaining we see that. Coming down quite quite dramatically over the next you know 7 to 8 years
| 39:04.41 | chrissass | so so I guess the the 1 thing in your logic that jumped out at me was I think you said these things have a 20 to 30 year life expectancy and you said all the prime fixed bottom is already built and you're so. So does that mean that they decommission that in the future and it all goes to floating because it would seem that there'd be a renewal time about the time your price point of floating dropped right from from what you just described and I'm not trying to catch you up I just I kind of heard that and I'm like well that would seem about the time that that the the infrastructure in place right now would be aging out right? It would be time to.
| 39:33.70 | Jonah Margulis | Yeah.
| 39:41.17 | Jonah Margulis | Yeah, possibly and and just to be put not all of the fixed bottom areas is gone just a lot of the prime real estate is is gone and you know they're still out there but just not as much but in terms of the in terms of the cost parody when we get to you know, let's say 2030 that's the
| 39:41.74 | chrissass | Upgrade.
| 39:52.42 | chrissass | Got it.
| 40:00.54 | Jonah Margulis | Number we've we've put on. Um you know we're at we're at cost parity um does it dip below. You know I don't know I mean it's ah you know how long is a piece of string I don't know so you know we'll see you know whether it it becomes.
| 40:09.81 | chrissass | Um, yeah.
| 40:17.75 | Jonah Margulis | Whether you decommission ah a fixed bottom and put a floating in you know, maybe um, 1 of the the challenges and 1 of the areas. The industry is looking at right now is this what we call the transition zone right? This forty to sixty meter where it's in some cases floating works at at cost. At the right cost sometimes forty to sixty meters is because of ocean seafloor conditions fixed bottom just it does doesn't work either the yeah, the the soil conditions just don't ah lend itself to to being structurally sound so so there will be those those areas. You know, do you decommission a fixed bottom and put a floating in maybe but that's you know that's we'll see I mean that's ah, that's a future question I don't know.
| 41:05.60 | chrissass | Yeah I wasn't trying to trip you out I just kind of look at the economics ah on and kind of a scale when you start doing things at Scale. There's 2 things that kind of strike me once again, layperson question is you know if if. If wind patterns and global warming are changing things and you're doing things at Scale. Do. Do you get to a point where your your large wind installation also starts changing changing wind behavior by having such a large installation. What does that do to the prevailing wind in the region.
| 41:35.72 | Jonah Margulis | Yeah I think you know it's a I can't answer the the question you know I'm not a climatologist so I don't know you know does the does a Jet stream change or anything like that I mean those are those are always risks I guess what we look is at more of a localized level. You know the wake effect of ah of a wind farm. You know, especially a large wind farm and making sure we're spacing and citing these these turbines and these these farms in the in the right locations. Um, and and it's not just the wind. You know we got to look at other ocean users. You know whether that's you know. Vessels whether that's fishermen whether that's migratory patterns. You know there's a whole host of of other ocean users we have to be conscious of but in terms of you know do the wind patterns change with a large deployment globally of of offshore wind turbines or wind turbs in general. Not not my expertise by any stretch but it seems seems a little to me a little far fetchched that we change the wind pattern of the world and by putting ah a wind tur out there.
| 42:43.51 | chrissass | Yeah, just curious. So I think we're getting close to time I'm going to give it to will to see what final thoughts or questions he might have.
| 42:52.14 | Will | Um, no I I think it's It's been a fantastic ah conversation I Um I don't have any any questions presenting themselves. Um, at the moment I think it's been a great conversation. All all the questions I had coming in have been answered um with with fantastic detail.
| 43:11.33 | chrissass | Well I still have a question or 2 so so I get the spacing. Um absolutely I had no skin in the game on the wind I just curious so I don't I don't have an opinion there. But I hear you say these things are spaced out so when you're.
| 43:11.66 | Will | Um, yeah.
| 43:30.26 | chrissass | But 1 of these in how many square miles is is 1 of these wind farms or how how big are 1 of these things when they're full deployment at scale.
| 43:37.42 | Jonah Margulis | Yeah I mean they can be. They can be pretty big when you're looking at you know the call areas that we're looking at in the west coast you know, quite large right? I mean these are these are big big call areas now in terms of. You know how much how much space we'll actually use for ah you know for a gigawatt or for 500 megawatts um, yeah, that's something we we try to you know, be conscious of ah conscious of in terms of when we're doing environmental assessments and and so Forth. So we we need to be really. Ah, careful and and it's very site specific to make sure we're spacing out appropriately for whether it's vessel traffic or or what other other things there are out in the out in the call area. But you know in terms of spacing mean I i. And typically have ah a picture in my background of you know I know we're all always on virtual meetings and so forth and and it gives a sense of how you know these are you know 1 and a half kilometer you know a mile in between each turbin I mean that's that's kind of the the size that we're talking about each turbine. You know, basically anybody who's doing floating right now is looking at you know 15 plus Megawatt turbines mean pretty much There may be some occasions where a little smaller than that. Um, and we're all looking at you know, above a hundred megawatt. So so you can kind of get a sense of of how. Large these ah these ah these fields and these farms are.
| 45:15.63 | chrissass | So absolutely. So my last question then is your crystal ball. So you you're you're year into this in your project where are you guys in 5 years
| 45:25.32 | Jonah Margulis | Ah, that's ah, that's a great question. Well I think where the industry is and yeah I'll do it that first and then and go to the the projects that we're in I mean I think the industry is starting to deploy floating at at a fairly rapid pace. You know we're seeing. You know, smaller projects being deployed right now. Yeah I mentioned the kincarten project which just just came online just in the matter of few weeks of Summer. It came online a fifty megawatt floating array off the coast of scotland you we'll see ah you know an eighty eight megawatt called highway tampin and norway. Which is we'll kind of online next year you know so by you know, 53 time period. You know we're starting to see 2 hundred plus Megawatt projects being deployed. Maybe maybe even higher than that I think you'll see most likely. Korea being the first large scale projects being deployed. You know 200 and fifty plus Megawatt type type projects being deployed and then soon they'reaf ah California it'll be right behind them. So I think it's a really exciting time. You know in 5 years the crystal ball holds true you'll see a lot of floating turbines spinning off the coast of Korea and and maybe even off coast california.
| 46:46.78 | chrissass | Very cool. Well I want to thank you for joining us today I have enjoyed the conversation. Thank you for indulging my questions because I'm sure they're a bit all over the place for you. But I feel like I learned a lot. Um, thank you for being our guest.
| 47:01.30 | Jonah Margulis | Absolutely was a pleasure I'll just leave you with ah the future is floating and ah, we'll leave it at that. Thanks for the opportunity. Really appreciate it.
| 47:10.20 | Will | Ah, thanks so much for joining us yet.
| 47:10.28 | chrissass | Well, you're welcome and 5 years from now I'm looking forward to the future describe for our audience. You've spent another hour listening to insider's guide to energy if you've yet to subscribe. Don't forget to hit the subscribe Button. We do have youtube videos up as well where you can watch the sausage being made as I say see behind the scenes. Or you can continue just to download the podcast as many of you are doing and continue to enjoy will on stories because those stories are knocking it out of the park. Thank you very much. We'll see you next week