157 Energy Dialogue: IGTE and Redefining Energy Explore EVs, Carbon Markets, and Hydrogen's Future

 In this special crossover episode, "Insider’s Guide to Energy (IGTE)" and "Redefining Energy" come together to delve into some of the most pressing topics in the world of energy today. This engaging and thought-provoking discussion, titled “Energy Dialogue: IGTE and Redefining Energy Explore EVs, Carbon Markets, and Hydrogen's Future,” brings together a wealth of expertise to explore the nuances, challenges, and future trajectories of critical energy themes. 

The episode kicks off with an insightful conversation about the rapidly evolving landscape of Electric Vehicles (EVs). The hosts and guests examine the current state of EV technology, market adoption rates, and the potential trajectory of EVs in reshaping the transportation sector. They discuss the geopolitical implications of shifting towards electric mobility and how different regions globally are adapting to this change. 

The dialogue then transitions into a critical analysis of hydrogen energy. The participants dissect the hype and realities of hydrogen as a potential game-changer in the energy sector, offering a balanced view of its possibilities and limitations. This segment aims to demystify the topic and provide listeners with a grounded understanding of where hydrogen stands in the energy transition. 

Another key focus of the episode is the role and effectiveness of carbon markets. Drawing on their diverse experiences and knowledge, the speakers discuss the impact of carbon pricing on various industries, the challenges in implementing effective carbon markets, and their role in achieving global emissions targets. 

The episode also features a rapid-fire round, offering quick takes on various hot-button energy issues, followed by a forward-looking discussion about emerging trends and predictions in the energy sector. 

Concluding with insightful closing thoughts, this episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the complexities and future of energy, providing a rare blend of expert analysis, diverse perspectives, and engaging debate. 

Transcript

00:00.00 

chrissass 

This week on insider guide to energy. We're going to try something a little bit different. We've brought our friend over for redefining energy to have a conversation Jeff and I laurent we go all over the place I hope you enjoy this conversation. It goes everywhere from cop to carbon capture to the cyber truck. It's a great episode. Jeff why did you go ahead and just kick us off. 

11:15.42 

Jeff McAulay 

Wonderful! Well Chris I'm thrilled today to have Laurence Segalen from the redefining energy podcast. He's a decades long energy, professional and outspoken thought leader from across the pond. So. Really excited to have his perspective today to balance out what's um, been a more American perspective I would say for me I know Chris you've had more experience across the pond. 

11:46.20 

chrissass 

Yeah I I mean I'm I'm looking forward to having learned here. He and I have gone back and forth on texts for probably a couple years now. Um, if I step out of line with something he doesn't like. I quickly get a dm from him saying hey why was this person on here. Why are you giving this person a voice to say this or that or are you're absolutely wrong with what you just said Chris so I find him one of the highest europeans I know and it's an honor to have him on the program today. So bring Laurent on and and see where we go. 

12:11.17 

Segalen 

Ah, ah I blushing. Thank you guys for having me. Yeah, let's have a good conversation. 

12:18.60 

Jeff McAulay 

This is great. So for today, it's easy for us as respective podcast hosts to talk about the the podcast itself or the art. But what's really interesting for me and what I've seen work well in crossover shows is when we run through a bunch of the topics. Are really hot in the discussion ah around renewable energy redefining energy energy transition. So what we're going to try to do today is run through some of those hot button issues and give quick takes are these overhyped underhyped appropriately hyped I know we can't get you to to. Fit into a specific category laurent so we won't try to constrain you too much I do want to be clear though. We're not trying to say will it work or will it not work. It's really or is it good or is it is it bad. We're really trying to understand is it over or under hyped and that can be subjective and let's have fun with this. 

13:01.10 

Segalen 

But you. 

13:17.45 

Jeff McAulay 

Right? So Lara we're going to get into some topics here anyone that you want to start with otherwise I'm going to randomize the order here and maybe throw in um, some surprises. 

13:27.65 

Segalen 

Look I'd like to start with a story and it's the story of the 6 blind man I don't know if you know it. But I'm going to tell it anyway. So there are 6 blind men who come and they start touching because they can see and the first one said this is a tree. The second one say no this is a wall the second. The third one is this is a snake to spear a fan a rope and in fact, they're all wrong because they're touching an elephant and you know one is touching his leg. Ah the other ones touching his stuscar his Trump and you know so when we talk about energy sometimes well. Those blind mans and we lack the big picture and of course you need to go back to the the 4 fathers of thinking about energy like Daniel Yergin and and it's always good because you know you see you see all those. Ah. Prediction or innovation and so on and at the end of the day. It's really about scale and and in my personal opinion There's been no one technology per decade who made it and the rest was just background noise. And that would have been in the 80 s the the ccg ts seventy s the nuclear. The the 90 s would be wind the 2000 would be solar and the last decade the batteries and that's it. Ah, you know. 

15:03.35 

Segalen 

These are these these are my principles and then a lot of weird noise around it. 

15:08.76 

Jeff McAulay 

I Love it. That's great framing and and yes I Love the story of the the blind man and the elephant but um, haven't told it haven't heard it so well told so that was that was a great way to start off. Okay, so. 

15:19.53 

Segalen 

Mother. 

15:21.95 

chrissass 

Well Jeff why don't we go ahead and just jump into some of the topics. So I have to wonder if every 10 years we get 1 new technology and you've you've kind of covered the ones where we're at today I think solar and wind are the prevalent. 

15:40.23 

Segalen 

Me. 

15:40.47 

chrissass 

Investments today storage is is is I don't know are we in the ten years or at the beginning of the ten years for storage. 

15:48.52 

Segalen 

Ah, so text tenure to you know for technology to to reach full maturity. That's the tenures and then the next tenure. The rollout is pretty crazy and I guess it's an escar of so you know we we are ah we we are into if you take wind. Ah, the the global installation the past three or four years I've started to plateau I mean it's still a lot is hundred gigawats still road. But it's not There's not much growth there whereas ah ah, solar. We're we're really in the steepest part of the ecurve so we had a. Hundred gig and then oh 200 gig and the the last year like 400 gig and but I'm not sure we we can go to 800 gig but you know it's it's it's pretty phenomenal now when it comes to batteries. There's a lot interesting thing is the chemistries are still. Working and changing very fast and know we had until 182 we had everything was cobort. So then after the backlash was what about the Congo what about those little children and blah blah blah you know, guess what they removed the cobalt from. Ah. 

17:01.83 

Segalen 

From the batteries and then after it was all niello Niel Niel you know Niel so expensive but and now okay boom now we are removing Niel so it's litium ferro phosphate lfp boom so lfp ah, ah, we're running out of litium. There's not enough litium everybody invests in litium and. Kabom last year liho one d said and guess what now they are coming with sodium so you know this is this is the decade where really people are you know searching for yeah, the the perfect combination and. The the innovations which are happening are absolutely fascinating and I'm investing in batteries I can tell you over six months I have to reset a lot of things because ah the thing is I'm not writing reports you know I'm writing checks. So you're a bit more cautious but is a battery is going to be everywhere that is going to change a lot. And so yeah, ah. 

17:58.60 

Jeff McAulay 

Let's talk about batteries on wheels electric vehicles. So this is an area where there is a lot of Hype and to some extent that's been proven out I'm looking at some numbers here that say in 2023 um middle of of last year we had 16% of new light dd vehicle fleets as electric that sounds very high to me. Um, as a percentage of the overall fleet I think we're still in single digits and than the 3 to 5% range iea has predictions. That globally 30% of the light duty vehicle fleet will be electric by 2040. Do you buy? This trajectory is the ev growth rate and transition overhyped or underhyped. 

18:52.70 

Segalen 

Ah I would say depends where because ah you have a different markets. You've got China I've got europe up. You've got the us and you've got various other parts of the world and and the story is very different and could even go. 

19:08.25 

Segalen 

In in different ways now now now we need to roll back because I think a lot of people think it's for the environment and my personal opinion. It's not It's about energy security and it's about technology dominance now if you look at. China now they need to import but fifteen Million Barrel laoid per day a lot of it passes ah in front of the fi f fliet in Singapore and know it's it's pretty easy to to blockcade. Ah, ah, China's in pot of petroleum. And if you read Daniel Yain it's the oil embargo in chapu to trigger the war trigger palabo six months later so my understanding is the chinese feel very unsecure in to of energy security having to import all all that oil. And that's one of the reasons they pushed very hard. The development of evs and now it's really proving a success if you look at Europe we are a bit in the same category. Considering we need to import 80% of our oil who whereas in the us um, you're drowning in oil and apparently the legacy o makers are you know paying lip service Tvvis but they probably thought no to do them. 

20:39.52 

Segalen 

So they like to you know, probably kick the count on the road and hoping that this that does not exist. But that's that's what I'm thinking. 

20:45.16 

chrissass 

All right? So so you're referencing you know, kind of the world energy map and and security and and Daniel your concepts um energy security is interesting. One of the things that I I see is potentially hype or potentially going after is this whole hydrogen thing going on right now. So. 

20:53.56 

Segalen 

Ah. 

21:04.48 

chrissass 

You talked about all this oil going one way or the other in the us you call us to wash and and hydrocarbons I'd say we probably are in natural gas very very high less so maybe in traditional oil but we can get to oil. However, we get it? Um, but what about hydrogen um, everybody's rushing there. There's bills and. Big centers being built and billions and trillions being lined up to go towards hydrogen. What do you think of that. 

21:30.33 

Segalen 

Why I think it's a scam of a big proportion I think that everybody who is who wants to invest in hydrogen I'm willing to take a trade against them and shot whatever they invest into that's as simple as it get. You know, as for my address, we'll organize the trade and I'm going to make a lot of money and and it's not because the head of Nicola is in jail but you know hydrogen they have toutd autorogen for transportation. It's not going to work for heating is not going to work hydrogen if you use it as energy. It doesn't work is just too expensive. $1 per Kito Equal $9 um m b to you? Okay, gas is a $3 of m b to you and that's $1 per kito if you want to make it green and everything you you can't do it before $5 per kilo the 5 per kito that's $45 per m b to that's insane you want to kill your industry use hydrogen you know that's it period now of course we're going to use it for ammonia we're going to use it for you know a few other stuff even steel you know I talked to my friends at the the biggest non-chinese steel company. And say you want to put titlerogens. Yeah I mean give me I do jenet when you one la a kilo I can use it in my ah in my furnesss but you know all the position I have is a $5 a kilo. So okay, maybe in the us they give you $3 a kilo but you know in your up. 

23:00.38 

Segalen 

You know the beat has spread is just too big. So no, that's it just is just too expensive. 

23:07.50 

Jeff McAulay 

Um, Chris do you have a take on hydrogen since you brought it up. 

23:10.13 

chrissass 

Well I mean for hydrogen. Yeah I I mean I I'm surprised you're saying you know $3 a kilo I think europe's probably about 12 a kilo right now I think that the initial targets when everybody was hyping. It was one and then everyone's moved to 2 or 3 is where they're hoping it will get to. Um, I think there's a lot of infrastructure getting and put in place to sell the electrolizrs and and and get the the businesses there right? So you know I spent a good bit of time doing hydrogen focus in germany recently and the auto industry may be changing. china's doing a lot of evs and producing lots of cars and there's regions of germany that really want to make a lot of hardware and electoralizers and pieces like that. Um, but there are a lot of people making big bets that hydrogen prices are going to come down and they're going to mandate it in europe I think that's a difference between the us and europe although europe us is just with the ira. Putting billions into building hydrogen centers. There's 1 big one going into houston now. 

24:08.95 

Segalen 

Well. 

24:09.24 

Jeff McAulay 

Um, I tend to agree, go ahead laurent if you had want more if you want to rebuttal? yeah. 

24:17.88 

Segalen 

Ah, that's good now of course the guys who produced the kit they want some people to buy them now. That's fine. That's fine, but you know I've been to the hydrodgen conferences and I saw Michael Libike delivering your like a world class. Ah. Pitch for 20 minutes without notes in front of 2000 engineers trying to sell their pumps and electizer and various c I didn't see a lot of customers I see a lot of sellers and generally when I go to conferences I like like to see a good balance between the two of them. So yeah. It's pushed by the people who want to sell kits or want to get some subsidies. You know that's fair, but that doesn't create a market. 

24:55.17 

chrissass 

But in policy going to force the issue though I mean in Europe it's becoming policy right? they're they're they're really pushing for fit for 55 I mean hydrogen is is part of a lot of government policy. 

25:10.59 

Segalen 

P Yeah, it's bullshit Bullshit I look I know the lobbyist I know the lobbyist I know they are I know their name they are their are bosos. That's the only thing I want to say you know a lot of things have been pushed by the gas industry. They are trying to. 

25:14.99 

Jeff McAulay 

Um, we. 

25:21.17 

Jeff McAulay 

A. 

25:28.75 

Segalen 

Keep their assets alive and pretend that you can put tight orgen in the gas pipes and everything is going to be okay, but yeah, it just doesn't work. It's ah it's an industry who you know leaves and die by burning molecule and. Okay, gas. You can't do gas anymore or you want do gas anymore. So you're Goingnna do height hot. Everything is goingnna be okay, no, it's not gonna be okay, but again, that's my opinion. But I'm willing to trade I'm willing to trade send me any of your lobbyist. Any guy you put any report on anything. Okay guy. We go to a lawyer. We write a swap boom see you in 5 years time. Ah. 

26:08.39 

Jeff McAulay 

I like I like this the the hydrogen short so I can't really um, it's It's hard to disagree but good points on on both sides I started my career in Hydrogen actually in fuel cells for forklipfts and for retrofitting. 

26:25.43 

Jeff McAulay 

Ah, vehicles to run on gasoline but then do onboard fuel reforming to turn it into hydrogen for a fuel cell power train that was gosh coming up on twenty years ago ah so I have a inherent negative bias generally no hydrogen as the fuel of the future and always will be. Ah, sharing that crown with with fusion but I have to say I'm I'm pretty skeptical and but the wrong I like the commanding heights frame the jurgen lens on hydrogen isn't actually about the customers. It's about national policy. It's about moving away from from fossil fuels and this is very clearly a government strategic push rather than a customer pull and that may be important not because it's maybe the best option but because there's other geopolitical strategic importance and I do think we're going to see some interesting. Niche markets come out around hydrogen you mentioned steel green ammonia so I'm optimistic on a few of those but broadly um, hard hard to argue that it's not overhyped. 

27:31.45 

Segalen 

Good and and look if people wants to know more. There is this excellent group of scientists called the Hydrogensen coalition. They have a wonderful website Paul Martin David Saban to Baxter and so on and everything you know you know what I say in 3 minutes you can read hours and hours and you' get all the industrial calculation. Everything why it's not going to work. So I say it if any investment bankers listen to this if you invest in nidro without first looking into the hydrogenenlision you should be fired. You don't deserve your job. Okay. 

28:08.58 

Jeff McAulay 

Um, strong words. 

28:08.60 

Segalen 

That's it Good good. 

28:09.29 

chrissass 

Let's be hydrogen because I think that's it lawrz made his point I shared what I thought Jeff you have so did you want to go back to evs I think we brushed over those and there there's there's there's a huge amount of noise round evs these days. 

28:23.14 

Jeff McAulay 

Yeah, so I'm I'm an Ed optimist I will say and I really appreciate the geopolitical framing because I think most of the debate and discussion in the Us tends to center around very consumer centric. 

28:24.18 

Segalen 

Um. 

28:39.67 

Jeff McAulay 

Perspectives of oh yes, but what about range anxiety or what about 0 to 60 or what about this or that model that's coming out or is there a 3 row suv ev model that meets the american demand for space and range. Um, so I think that's a very consumer-centric discussion. And I appreciate the ah the national geopolitic discussion which is actually the reason why we're shifting is to to get off oil and I think we're seeing that. Ah definitely in the us led by California as usual so I'm optimistic actually that we're going to see. Ah, very substantial new market penetration of electric vehicles that we're going to see that across commercial fleets long haul trucking and the the bumps in the road that we've seen over the last couple years particularly you mentioned it earlier on around battery prices and commodity prices. I think we're starting to see that level out and that those are growing pains. There's billions and billions of dollars being poured into us domestic battery manufacturing that I think is going to stabilize the supply chain and I think that ah the the huge amount of investment. Coming through the Ira will really catalyze growth in the next decade really of Ed Growth so I'm I'm on the hype train for evs broadly and optimistic for that to be 1 of the next major technologies of this coming decade. 

30:11.52 

Segalen 

Yeah, yeah, yeah, but and look okay, first of all I'm a elon fan. You know always I've been always will be whatever shit he does and he does a lot I'm so I'm saying I'm ah I'm a total fan. 

30:24.60 

Jeff McAulay 

A. 

30:29.12 

Segalen 

Um, you know because without him we still be talking about hydrogen cars and as the future and so on I mean I kept this mechanism report from 2 ah 12 to 12 the future of automotive the automotive industry. And if you if you search you know control f you search for what electric just once if you search hydrogen is like 20 times so you know you ask me about the future. The the future is very hard to predict but they are trends now for for the geopolitics reason and also the. The the bad relationship with China you know, no John venture or foreign entity of this all that it's going to go slower in the us that's that's for sure but it's it's not about the range. It's it's really about look we have the oil the chinese of the tech. You know let's let's not go for asis whereas a. In Europe we don't have the oil and the relation with China is less. Um I mean we have to deal with Russia which for us is the big bag the as a Gen Mcan would say yeah thugs ah running ah a gas station. So yeah. 

31:41.77 

chrissass 

So so what's your take then so your your take is that the us will get evs and it's inevitable or is it just ah, are we. 

31:47.94 

Segalen 

It it is but at the exception of test light looks like the the del legaccy guys are are are doing it reluctantly just if you look at the lobbying and and you know Toyota usa so youta us is almost a us company but you know before Biden arrives they were say oh never' going to work but bla blah and then you know you've got regularly in the the pravda. How do you call the pravda. Yeah, the war switch channel you know Ntm Elemental Pravda the oil prafda. You know regularly popping articles like you know e it doesn't work e what about like oh I can't run a thousand miles without having to refueing 20 minutes you know the stop of things and and and you you can feel that the Gm and the forward and. You know would love that nothing change and um, you know. So yeah, it's when you have half if not more of the industry who is you know going backwards or having to do it and say ah. 

32:58.67 

Segalen 

Makes the world transition more difficult. You know, whereas in Europe ho okay, the germans are really of have a problem I mean the the german economic vehicle was based on toolhas number 1 cheap prussian gas and number 2 ah selling ah petrol vi ikers. So they're struggling but they they they're getting there but but yeah in the us is is you know at the end of the day consumer is the same. You know they want the best product that cheap purchases the most that said. 

33:28.27 

chrissass 

For but that's the Us right? We see change right? I mean if you look at Telecom if you look at other industries where where they've pivoted if you looked at the old telecom models. They used to have these big R box and old telephones and Ip came along and these newcomers came in disrupted now The the old guys are still around. They reinvented themselves. 

33:39.21 

Segalen 

No. 

33:47.58 

chrissass 

But isn't that happening with the teslas with the pollsters with you know with all these evs coming in isn't it just its early innings I mean you know when when you read the articles that Ev are not going well in the Us. Well, the growth is still rapid growth. It's just not. 

33:50.10 

Segalen 

It. 

34:04.21 

chrissass 

Exponentially Rapid growth. It's it's just it's a slower slope right? It's still growing and. 

34:10.70 

Segalen 

Yeah, but look ah you you would change your your oyster phone to your flipflock phones every one or 2 years and you know the the cars. The the lifecycle is much longer. You know 20 year it's It's not an investment of a few hundred dollars it's an investment of. You know tens of thousands of dollars very important for households. So I mean we can make the parallel but I think it's ah it's interesting. But you you just can't apply the the telecom the speed ah to the car. Second thing is the telecom. It was a growing market here the cars if you look at the number of cars sold in the Us. It's what you know 15 to 20000000 but that has been the case for the past ten years so people feel that if you buy an navy you're not going to buy a nice and of course the dealers and of course the spare parts and you know the whole ecosystem around the. The ice vi cur so I see it's it's gonna happen. But it's the the viscosity sometimes the inertia it's much bigger. 

35:14.90 

chrissass 

Jeff an opinion. 

35:19.45 

Jeff McAulay 

I I gave my evta I think yes, there's definitely ah fleet mechanics so we have to be careful about percentage of us light duty vehicle fleet versus new vehicle sales new vehicle sales percentage can grow much faster. And if the average vehicle life in the us is Ten To Fifteen Years there is just a fleet tune over row effect that's going to take a lot of time I think we're we're absolutely talking about a multi-decade trend here and but that's something that is going to going to continue to grow. 

35:46.72 

Segalen 

And. 

35:50.69 

chrissass 

What about Cybertruck hype excited everybody. What's your opinion of cybertruck. So. 

35:59.64 

Segalen 

I've seen it in New York when I was there at Thanksgiving and it's wow. Okay, it's very non-european that's it I mean look yeah. Have a car here which I don't really use in the center of London and it's a relatively big car now when I have the same car in the Us. It looks like a mini mean size of the cars here is here in in America is unbelievable. So the the criteria are not the same so I don't know it's a look I'm I'm sure a lot of very intelligent people who have done a lot of research around it and and plus ah you might get surprised. You know tastes change I not know. 

36:52.80 

chrissass 

And but I was surprised in Europe I mean I lived in Switzerland for the past four years and switzland was very much a car culture. A lot of people were in their cars and even though there were a lot of teslas on the road there. There were a lot of porss and Bmw's and other cars with huge monster engines and believe it or not. 

36:54.83 

Segalen 

Look. Ah. 

36:57.44 

Segalen 

Then. 

37:06.27 

Segalen 

Ah. 

37:11.53 

chrissass 

Classic American muscle cars I would see on Swiss Roads I don't know where you park these things because driving around a European city in anything bigger than a Mid-sizededan is crazy. It's hard. Um, but people want them I mean they blame the Americans but ah I don't know I saw a lot of folks. You know. 

37:21.78 

Segalen 

Are. 

37:29.33 

chrissass 

You know, probably in the higher income area in Switzerland had big cars. 

37:35.73 

Segalen 

Ah, okay, good. 

37:37.34 

Jeff McAulay 

Fact fact, check note here. Ah the cybert truck is a foot shorter than the standard forward f one fifty so it 

37:44.69 

Segalen 

You have but there't he but there's no if ah for f one 15 your job. There's none. Yeah I mean the the biggest car you're Goingnna have is probably a w rentch Rover or you know which look very big here and probably in the us like ah very very. 

37:52.20 

Jeff McAulay 

Um, yeah. 

38:03.57 

chrissass 

So to another thing in the energy podcasts and when we're talking or in in our both in our day jobs as well is carbon markets. So you know a lot of this renewal right? We're about trying to reduce greenhouse gases and carbon. So what about carbon markets. What do? what do you think? are they. 

38:03.67 

Segalen 

Medium Size s uv. 

38:14.90 

Segalen 

Ah. 

38:22.32 

chrissass 

Priced high enough. Do do they work. What's your thoughts. 

38:25.90 

Segalen 

Okay, so thank you for let me speak the next half hour because I was I was one of the creator of the european carbon market where back when twenty five years ago I advised the Eu Commission I was at pwsc at the time did did a certain number of things by the way who sticked. Kind of surprised when you do so I was ah one of the 20 guys who wrote the first grunaz gas protocol and of course everybody used now. Scope 1 sco 2 score 3 and I remember very clearly the old negotiation we had in order to arrive to those concepts anyway, so well. First of all the open carbon market was created at the same time we were liberalizing energy. So what were creating the carbon market in the same dynamics as we were. You know, creating the energy markets and that was I mean. The funny thing is at at the time the most that my company in Europe was enron and everybody wanted to be the new Enron. It didn't end very well but look the all idea was get the time gas was expensive coal was super cheap. Nuclear was. Well, you never know what the price of nuclear but the whole idea was to give a bit of a competitive advantage for gas and nuclear against coal. That's the premise now of course there were other sectors like steel cement and so on but you know guess what? they they give them the. 

39:55.72 

Segalen 

The the allowances for free. So. In fact, press they overlocated. So. In fact, these were even subsidies and it has ups and downs and it at some point the the world market was so much of overlocated for you know between say 2 10 and 2 16 or 17 there was so much surplus that carbon was trading at five Euro button which basically is nothing and then it started picking up and you know going from 5 to almost 100 and all of a sudden people say wow carbon markets super so does the carbon market create some. Ah, and competitive advantage or disadvantage. It's it's very hard to say it's it's also you know does it increase the price of power or not and even the howabers were not in the carbon market. They were dealt with subsidies. So. A lot of people take a lot of conclusion but the only positive aspect I see is that there's a price. There's a prize as equityity every day you can arrive you can buy too too much carbon you have on it. But that's a regulatory market okay so regulatory market and they really have problems ah with steel so still. That's why they put the carbon ah border adjustment call that mechanism. It's a tax because if steel start you know to pay for carbon which they're not doing right now. It's just going to put them out of business because it's to turn. 

41:27.85 

Segalen 

So ah, sorry 2 to of co 2 per ton of steel. Okay steel sells at what's ah 600 to $800 perton you know if you put $200 of ah sorry yeah, $200 of carbon out of 600. You're out of the market. So it's all about ah taxing ah Chinese imports. Basically. Okay, and then they say oh if you import sevenment nobody imports sement cement double price every fifty miles so nobody imports sevenment. So so but that's 1 thing I think it's good to have ah to to have a carbon price. But you can in the us you won't so in the us you just give subsidies subsidies or tax credits. But it's it's it's a good and simple system does it work. Yes let's say it works now. The voluntary company. 

42:15.47 

chrissass 

So you you think it worked on the current pricing So that I mean I think pricing needs to go up to make it work better. Does it not to really have an impact on total carbon is because right now it's not even getting on most people's radars. It's the pricing' still pretty low. It's just a cost of doing business. 

42:21.50 

Segalen 

Yeah, yeah, depends. It's too low doesn't. 

42:34.47 

Segalen 

Yeah, but okay, so look. it's it's it's very difficult because if on the top of that you you have the price of power which in europe has been pretty much flat for you know 10 years and then it went crazy eighteen months ago I mean literally trace a good price of gas as well and then you end up with you know, weird weird things like okay half of the european aliminiums melt closed. Okay, the price of power was too high. In fact, they closed because they. Contracts and decided not to produce aluminium and resset their contracts and 50 fertilizer fertilizers plant in Europe I've closed because a price. Yeah, ah you know to do ammonia they just couldn't make it unfortunately a lot of the polluting. Activities a high volume low margin and the price of energy is super important in them and look you have you have gas at 3 drop m you europe up. Best case we can have 10 if not more. I mean no wonder and no wonder all those activities you know, high volume low margin eyeergy content are going to move to Texas I mean. 

43:51.23 

chrissass 

And yeah, but that's that's what I I guess I'm wondering so you know is we're getting ready for this call. We were talking a little bit about the regional and the global impact of all this and and and going into the regions and so if an aluminum manufacturer shuts down in the Eu they simply move somewhere else. 

44:00.54 

Segalen 

Are. 

44:10.89 

chrissass 

So let's say it's made somewhere where it's easier to make it and then it's imported in it doesn't cut Greenhouse gases. So the policy is not working then. 

44:17.47 

Segalen 

Ah, and. 

44:20.26 

Segalen 

No, but the question is where is it going. You know? Ah and you know if if they build a beautiful new smelter in Quebec and you know you're going to get a a brand new aluminium with ah you know coming from heiddro. And guess what I mean the price of aluminium is is down pretty much you know in a straight line I mean nobody's making a lot of money producing your ah you know aluminium so you know it makes sense from a capitalistic point of view. That those activities are are ah located where it makes them make sense and but provided we can you know move the stuff on the sea now if they are produced out of China with coal or out of the gulf with gas. That's where you've got the mechanism. Yeah. The carbon where they'll they'll put a carbon on the way in. 

45:20.85 

Jeff McAulay 

Yeah, and I think it's it's amazing to have your perspective on European Compliance markets and this is a big difference from the end. We don't have a compliance market. We have really the voluntary market and the rest as you said it's done through Rex. And state level renewable portfolio standards or it's done through the tax code. So I think there is an example there of how the the compliance markets can work I have serious concerns about the voluntary market or pinning our hopes and dreams on on the voluntary market. It's hard to argue. 

45:46.55 

Segalen 

Ah. 

45:56.10 

Segalen 

Um, ah. 

45:59.79 

Jeff McAulay 

Anything other than that's a a complete mess and I'm concerned by the trends in the voluntary market. The way people are trying to fix this is to go to higher quality higher durability higher permanence which leads to a place I also don't love which is essentially direct air capture and. My take in general about carbon markets is that really I'm a fan of anything with co-benefits if we can point to co-benefits. Okay I'm listening if we've got a carbon market that's paying $2000 a ton with 0 co-benefits. That's. Hard for me to get behind so I'm pretty negative on the voluntary carbon market as I see it currently? Um I don't have a more detailed or I can't can't come to the level of informed opinion that you have on the. Ah, compliance markets in in Europe I wish we had something similar I don't think that's happening anytime soon. 

46:57.90 

Segalen 

Never never they take too much energy and let's not forget the most of the european industry was in favor of the carbon market. So really tell pushtoll system in in 3 years it was done if. You know you just can't create a national cabin market in the us never going to work. But okay, let's talk voluntary. So the the old voluntary started probably ten years ago when the remnants of a Kyoto potterco instrument called the cream development mechanism. So whole idea was okay, we're going to make some emission reduction project in the developing countries and you know we're going to bring those emission back and we're going to use those credits. Well, at first you, you could even use Thoseri inside the european compliance system but it stop at some time so they they were left with some. Projects which were delivering credits that nobody could use for compliance prospect prospect. Even they were clever enough to go to see certain companies so you you want to be a good citizen you carbon neutral or you know, yeah esg and you're going to buy those credits and by the way they're support cheap and. And so that's but look it was ah until two years ago where where there was a hype. It was a market below a billion dollar years so it was almost nothing and then all of a sudden people ah realized that there was a lot of. 

48:28.90 

Segalen 

I don't know if I'm going to say scam but I would say a lot of the reductions or the credits were not valid I mean the idea is okay, you know what? guess what? there's a forest. Oh I swear I'm not going to cut the trees or just give me credits for that I mean there's a lot of storyytelling and and it's full of the press now. In interaction to that. There's been ah a very good initiative called the integrity conceal on the voluntary carbon market with a lot of ngos and academics who's been working for 2 years try to fix and ah you know a lot of things have been identified and so on so I would say now we arrive with. The 10 criteria we call the core carbon principles and it has to be additional. It has to be verified as to be permanent. Yeah yeah, now you end up saying okay, it's dak or nothing. no no I'm sorry I mean there's a lot of things to do in bio diversity. There's a lot of things to do probably not in the us but certainly in latin America lots of things to do in Africa Oreas asia and so a lot of reforestation I grow look It's not very sexy. Yeah but ah, it brings a lot of benefits when it's properly done and properly monitorito. To those countries. I mean there's a dual program of cook stoves. You know giving cook stoves to populations. So don't have to chop the trees. That's that's low tech. Very good. It's hard to monitor. But you know, but what? Okay, it's a $2000000000 a year. 

49:56.97 

Segalen 

And the the tungste market is four billion I Nobody talks about tangte nobody talks about tank team. Its double the size. The vulnerabilit get people very emotional. That's it. But. 

50:05.60 

chrissass 

Wow! So so in just a time I want to switch gears a little bit here I want to do a speed round with the 3 of us and go over just a bunch of things that are happening and just 1 or 2 word answers. Just. 

50:15.41 

Segalen 

Ah, no. 

50:23.67 

chrissass 

You know, flashing around each of us can throw topics in I Want to start by saying cop quick feedback short answer laent. What do you think? okay. 

50:33.18 

Segalen 

Now it's good that people meet. It's good that no no, it's good that people talk. It's good that for you know, two weeks per year. It's it's on the radar of politician and now you've got the big Ceo coming in. 

50:49.45 

chrissass 

All right? So air condition tents in the desert Jeff what do you think. 

50:49.76 

Segalen 

So yeah I mean it's ah it's a great talking shop. 

50:55.51 

Jeff McAulay 

Um, I'm I'm proop I'm definitely pro-op I think we got a really encouraging outcome. Not maybe where everybody wants to be but I think it was a big step and is appropriately hyped I Think this is a really important. Um. 

51:12.76 

Jeff McAulay 

That happens every year 

51:14.10 

chrissass 

So ah I definitely like it I think it may be a little overhyped for the results. But if you don't talk you don't get anywhere all right? So next person send out another term Jeff call one out. 

51:19.92 

Segalen 

Um, yeah. 

51:24.30 

Jeff McAulay 

Um, oh fun. Um nuclear small modular reactors. 

51:31.50 

Segalen 

Ah, ah. 

51:32.51 

chrissass 

I Personally love him I know laent and I've talked about this in the past he's we've had differences of opinion I think that they're they're a lot to be said in the future I think they're going to be ah, a wave of the future. There's a lot of investment going that way and I think they'll become reality and policy will change. Ah. 

51:46.78 

Jeff McAulay 

Um, do you think appropriately hyped under hi. Oh. 

51:47.69 

Segalen 

I Hope to yeah I Hope you have invested in new scale. Ah, this oak clo coming soon. That's gonna be That's gonna be a beauty. Yeah nope. 

51:49.77 

chrissass 

Under height. So. 

52:02.62 

chrissass 

I. 

52:04.91 

Segalen 

No, no, no no and I mean nuclear no nuclear work nuclear work if it's big it. It works at the one gig ah level look if we half an hour I would explain you at the smr in the french nuclear e halfcao now that you know. 

52:05.90 

Jeff McAulay 

Um, a raw. No yeah. 

52:23.21 

Segalen 

They wanted to put three smrss inside the kya ah, but they they never managed to design a usmr. So in fact, they just picked the one which were in the nuclear submarines. But the hull was not big enough to put 3 so they have to put two so the nuclear ah Kaka is underpowered so whenever they don't need enough speed. 

52:37.20 

Jeff McAulay 

Probably. 

52:42.21 

Segalen 

They don't have enough speed for the plane to take off. Okay, so what happens is the the engineer says look the plane can take off with full tank but without the missiles or they can you know fully armed but with just 5 minutes of hulu. And so that's what's happened. They take off with five minutes of fuel and there's a air tanker and immediately they go and they get refue and then they can go bomb I don't know who so look okay, sorry, sorry. 

53:08.30 

Jeff McAulay 

Um, okay, this is the rapid fire around that? Yeah, ah, well hold on I got to get my my take in here on Smr I I do think that's over over I Want to believe. 

53:12.52 

chrissass 

All right weren't throwing out there to us. 

53:23.40 

Jeff McAulay 

There's a lot of reasons why I want and it's really hard to build the large scale nuclear in in the Us. But I do think unfortunately it's it's overhyped but all right la your turn. 

53:36.13 

chrissass 

So now you ask us fire fire us another question. Let's let's move on to another topic. Keep the keep going around. 

53:37.54 

Segalen 

Um, look I I. 

53:42.87 

Segalen 

Okay, so interconnectals transmission. 

53:47.86 

chrissass 

So my my take is that's been a gate for in the us getting interconnection if you're going to get that is is a problem and it's not anywhere close to being solved at in the Us. 

53:59.67 

Jeff McAulay 

I agree I mean it it needs to be hyped. It needs to be hyped more It's a big problem every conference every year for the next fifteen years we're still going to be talking about the challenges of transmission and interconnection I don't think that's going away anytime soon. Ah, wish that there was a better faster solution out there. But I don't see any on the horizon. 

54:23.50 

Segalen 

Okay, I'm super bullish and I'm I'm going to do it slowly because I'm Contrarian look most of the new capacity is going to be is going to come from Intermittan resources is going to be win and solar most of the new capacity. And we all believe that like triificational transportation eating will increase power consumption so you have a problem which is space and time. Okay, time is batteries but can be pumpide. All and space is interconnections and I do believe. Especially East-west interconnection are very important because you know solar Solar. You're going to have too much sala not in have sala too much salon. The Ti of Sala and if you manage to build East-west interconnector that is going to ah bring a huge gain in energy efficiency. And generally speaking the bigger degree the more resilient it is so I'm very bullish into connectionction East-west East-west Not North South North South doesn't make any sense. 

55:30.47 

chrissass 

I think we got time for 1 more round was we we need to wrap this up pretty soon. Um, biofuels you mentioned you were in New York the other day are you flying carbon free and are you bullish on biofuels. 

55:42.77 

Segalen 

You mean biofuel for the the old soft thing sustainable innovation fueler yeah look in your op. it's mated it's it's it's interesting because you know they add 1 % per year. So that's going to oblige. You know, certain way to you know, develop an industry I think bizarly that's that's a quite good policy because it's progressive over the next ten to twenty years now ah let's face it I mean jet fuel. It's ah super cheap. And whatever sustaination ofol is more expensive and we all know 30% of the price of the ticket now. Yeah is fuel. So I understand that the companies are reluctant but look it works it works. It's just more expensive so and look. Every day I open my ah my Google and everything and they propose me to fly to you know the south of italy for 10 eu old. Okay, so I I think I ah be happy to pay say 15 ah to get some ah kno fuels. But it's going to take. I mean what is it the the jet fuel consumption is what 7000000 barril level per day. It's going to take a lot of time. But yeah, yeah, bullish. Yeah. 

57:04.81 

chrissass 

Jeff you got an opinion you. 

57:08.90 

Jeff McAulay 

I want to believe I really do um, it's been really hard to see growth in any non-eththanol biofuels in the us I think we're at something like 0.1% of aviation fuels as saaf. So it's it's basically nonexistent. Today I'm I'm hopeful I'm optimistic ah looking for the the bullish takes and I haven't seen a lot necessarily to be optimistic about yet. Maybe we'll have somebody on the show to to tell us where I'm missing that. Um, but I haven't seen it and I think it's going to be a very long. Flow ramp even to get to 10 percent by by 2030 which is one of the targets that I'm seeing up there. 

57:49.70 

Segalen 

It. 

57:49.62 

chrissass 

Yeah, I'm not sure what to make every time I get in a plane and watch the video at the beginning and they tell me I'm on a sustainable flight I I kind of smile because I I find that hard to believe that my airline is sustainable as I'm flying across somewhere for work. Um, we've had some guests on that had some interesting startups I um. Cautiously optimistic. Let's say that's that's my take. Um, but I think that we're kind of at the point where we need to pull this together and and bring this show to an end because we could go on between us all day long. Um I've had a lot of fun I think we've been all over the place which is one of larnz. Ah. Comments about our podcast. He never can quite figure out what it is. We do I think he's told me at 1 point because he's not exactly sure where we're going to go from week to week. So why would this episode be any different than insiders guide to energy all right. 

58:26.41 

Segalen 

Um. 

58:37.62 

Segalen 

Now you're doing look Guys. You're doing a great job and ah and yeah, that's True. A certain of your ah of your guests were kind of did we upput look look.. It's great to have all this ah you know. And troponship initiative people trying stuff and not everything is going to work and a lot of money has been squandered on stupid things and lobby. You know you talk about dack and yeah, a lot of things is not going to work but it's good to see you know that all generation pushing in the same direction. So You know. Whatever the mistake? Whatever the scams. Ah overall I enjoyed the travel. 

59:20.22 

Jeff McAulay 

We're certainly not running out of topics which is exciting for us and Lara I appreciate the chance to share this ah the conversation with you. You bring a really different perspective than a lot of the folks that we we talk to and not shy about opinions I feel like you're the the jiggershaw. Of of Europe in terms of your ah forceful opinions and ah and takes which is really exciting and wonderful to have you in conversation. Thank you so much for joining us today. 

59:36.72 

chrissass 

First. Oh. 

59:39.70 

Segalen 

Ah. 

59:47.17 

chrissass 

For audience we hope you've enjoyed this episode. It's been fun working with Laurent and edit it redefining energy and we'll talk to you again next time on the insider's guide to energy.